For the last eight years, the Republican congressman in northeastern Wisconsin has crushed opponents, winning more than 60% of the vote in every contested election. In 2022, Democrats couldn’t even find a candidate to run.

But Rep. Mike Gallagher retired from the U.S. House in the spring, and Democrats hope that creates an opening in the 8th Congressional District, which curves from Door County through Green Bay and Appleton up to the Michigan border.

Three strong Republican candidates are jostling for the nomination in the right-leaning district. Democrats have coalesced around one: Kristin Lyerly, an OBGYN physician from Kaukauna.

Of the four candidates, she raised the most money in the first half of 2024, with more than $890,000, according to her campaign finance reports filed with the Federal Elections Commission.

The doctor’s practices in Wisconsin and Minnesota perform abortions and she is making reproductive rights a major issue in the campaign.

In comparison, the trio of Republicans raised a total of $1.7 million in the first half of the year, an ominous sign for Democrats. Donald Trump won the district by more than 15 points in 2020.

The GOP field is split between state Sen. André Jacque, who represents the Door County part of the district in the state legislature, former state Sen. Roger Roth, who used to represent the Fox Valley part of the district in the state legislature but left to run for lieutenant governor in 2022, and the Trump-endorsed Tony Wied, best known for previously owning the local gas station chain Dino Stop.

Wied leads the Republicans in campaign donations, having raised more than $810,000 in the first half of the year. But most of that — $500,000 — comes from a loan he made to his campaign, according to his July filing with the Federal Elections Commission.

Roth raised more than $710,000 in the first half of the year, while Jacque raised about $220,000, according to their filings with the FEC.

Lyerly reported spending the most — nearly $600,000 — in the first half of 2024 and had a little more than $300,000 in the bank at the end of June, according to her latest filing. Wied and Roth both reported spending more than $140,000 each in the first half of the year, and had about $670,000 and $560,000, respectively. Jacque reported spending about $90,000 and had about $130,000 left.

Prof. Aaron Weinschenk, chair of the UW-Green Bay political science department, said Wied’s “outsider” status might help him win the nomination, along with the “information cue” of the former and possibly future president’s endorsement. But that knife can slice both ways.

“Trump-backed candidates tend to get a slight boost in primaries, although they get a slight punishment in general elections, so it may be harmful later on in the process,” Weinschenk wrote in an email. “Here in the district, we are seeing a fair amount of TV advertisements already. I’ve seen Weid ads, Roth ads, and some ads from outside groups too, which is usually a sign of a competitive race.”

Trump endorsed Wied on his social media platform Truth Social, in which he said Wied would “work hard to Unleash American Energy, Stop Inflation, Secure our Border, Support our Military / Vets, and Protect our always under siege Second Amendment. Tony Wied has my Complete and Total Endorsement – He will not let you down!”

In the post, Trump also jabbed Roth, calling him “RINO Roger Roth, who is a “clone” of Paul Ryan, and no friend to MAGA.”

Roth has received endorsements from U.S. Rep. Scott Fitzgerald of Wisconsin and from Scott Walker, though the former governor is nowhere to be found on his website. Roth is a captain in the Wisconsin Air National Guard and is also backed by an independent group called Elect Principled Veterans, which supports moderates. The group has reported spending $75,000 to support Roth.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has endorsed Jacque in his highest-profile backing. The anti-abortion group Pro-Life Wisconsin has also endorsed him.

Both Roth and Wied emphasize “securing the southern border” as a policy priority on their websites. Roth also mentions “Restoring American values” and “Ending Bidenomics.” Wied notes “Supporting President Trump” among several other traditional conservative points on his website. Jacque highlights his work promoting conservative principles like his opposition to abortion and gun control and his support for “school choice.”

The top donors to each candidate

Per federal law, an individual can donate a max of $3,300 to a congressional candidate per election. Since candidates must run in a primary and a general election, individuals can give $6,600 per election cycle.

Wied received the maximum from both James and Sarah Wied of Green Bay, from both James and Meghan Greene of De Pere, from both Angelo and Jennifer Ninivaggi of Appleton, and David Charles of New Franken, according to his filing.

He also received the maximum donation from right-wing billionaire megadonor Dick Uihlein, an heir to the Schlitz fortune and founder of the ULINE packaging company along with his wife Liz, another right-wing megadonor. The Uihleins put huge sums behind their favored candidates using their Super PACs, to which they can donate unlimited amounts and which can spend unlimited amounts promoting and attacking candidates through advertising on various media.

Roth received $3,300 donations from both Dick Uihlein and his wife Liz Uihlein, according to his filing.

Roth also received maximum $6,600 donations from both John and Lisa Dykema of De Pere, from both Gregg and Deobrah Kunes of Delavan, Ryan Downs of Appleton, Dave Miller of Hortonville, Terrence Fulwiler of Algoma, Todd Kelsey of Waupaca, Sandy Ballou of Madison and Lawrence Wiley of Madison.

Jacque, who is staunchly pro-life, has raised the least money. He reported maximum donations from Chad Fradette of Pulaski and Paul Lubinski of De Pere.

Ten members of the Zignego family, which runs Zignego Ready Mix concrete company headquartered in Waukesha, each gave Jacque $3,300.

State Rep. Chuck Wichgers, a Republican from the Milwaukee suburbs, gave Jacque $2,000.

Lyerly has received the maximum donation from Laurie Murphy of De Pere and John Miller of Fox Point. Miller is a major donor to Wisconsin Democrats. He also gave the maximum this year to another Democratic candidate, Peter Barca, in the 1st Congressional District in southeastern Wisconsin.

Sage Weil, owner of Civic Media, a network of Wisconsin news radio stations and a partner of The Badger Project, has given Lyerly $3,300. Scot Ross, a prominent liberal pundit from Madison, has given Lyerly $2,000.

Most of Lyerly’s donations have come from the national Democratic fundraising platform ActBlue.

An ‘uphill battle’ for the out-party

Democrats last won the 8th Congressional District in 2008, but Republicans retook the seat in the Tea Party wave election of 2010 and have held it ever since.

Winning in the Republican-leaning district will be “an uphill battle,” Weinschenk wrote.

A major wild card is the earthquake at the top of the Democratic ticket, with Vice President Kamala Harris becoming the presidential candidate so late in the campaign.

Weinschenk noted political science research has suggested that presidential candidates can impact down-ballot races, like those for Congress, if they excite voters and increase turnout.

And of course the issues matter too. Abortion is likely to be a major factor in the race for president and for the 8th, Weinschenk said. Harris is likely to play up the issue nationally, and that could hep Lyerly. Also, Jacque is fiercely opposed to abortion and his victory in the primary could set up a very stark contrast between the two candidates, Weinschenk noted.

The Badger Project is a nonpartisan, citizen-supported journalism nonprofit in Wisconsin.

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This article first appeared on The Badger Project and is republished here under a Creative Commons license.